Gold Horn Ventures Monthly Lending & Small Business Update
📅 June 2025

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Mixed Signals:
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in June as inflation eased slightly but consumer spending remained strong. Economists are split on whether rate cuts will come in July or September, creating uncertainty for long-term financial planning.

Small Business Optimism Rebounds Slightly:
According to the NFIB, small business optimism rose modestly in June after several stagnant months. Still, concerns remain around inflation, labor costs, and access to capital.

Stock Market Rally Shows Signs of Cooling:
After a strong first quarter, equity markets showed increased volatility in June as investors weighed earnings reports and the Fed’s next move. This may impact investor sentiment and business investment in the near term.

Commercial Lending Sees Slowest Growth Since 2020:
Banks reported the weakest growth in commercial and industrial lending since the early pandemic. Stricter underwriting and higher reserve requirements continue to limit access to credit for small- and mid-sized businesses.

Private Credit Market Grows as Banks Pull Back:
Private credit funds hit a new record in AUM this month as businesses increasingly turn to non-bank lenders. This trend mirrors broader shifts toward alternative financing amid tighter regulation and higher compliance burdens for traditional banks.

IRS Issues Guidance on ERC Claims:
The IRS released new updates on the Employee Retention Credit (ERC), including warning of increased audits and outlining safe harbor provisions. Many businesses are now reassessing past claims or holding off on new filings.

NYC Congestion Pricing Delayed Again:
The long-anticipated congestion pricing plan for Manhattan has been delayed to late 2025 amid pushback from local businesses and commuters. While the plan aims to reduce traffic and fund transit, many small business owners remain concerned about reduced foot traffic.

TikTok Ban Legislation Advances in U.S. Senate:
The U.S. Senate moved forward with legislation that could force a TikTok sale or ban in the U.S. This raises major marketing concerns for small businesses reliant on the platform for customer acquisition.

Summer Travel Season Surges:
AAA reports record-breaking travel numbers for Memorial Day and early June. Hospitality, event, and retail businesses are seeing a boost—but also facing labor shortages and logistical pressure as demand ramps up.

• 3.8%: National unemployment rate in May
   
• 0.2%: Monthly core inflation increase (May CPI release expected mid-June)
   
• $1.9T: Total outstanding small business debt in the U.S., per SBA estimates
   
• 15%: Drop in new business bank loan approvals year-over-year